DALLAS (NEWS RELEASE) — The following is a news release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas:
Texas added 102,200 jobs in October, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released [Friday] by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The state added a revised 46,300 jobs in September and has lost 704,400 jobs year-to-date.
Using a top-down model based on national forecasts, COVID-19 infection rates and oil futures prices, the Dallas Fed estimates the jobs recovery in Texas will decelerate in the last two months of the year. Consequently, Texas Employment Forecast projects jobs will decline 5.6 percent this year. Based on the forecast, 721,700 jobs will be lost in the state, and employment in December 2020 will be 12.2 million. The forecast weakened from the 4.2 percent decline previously projected.
“Although October saw a pickup in job growth, the Texas economy has begun to slow with the surging infection and hospitalization rates from COVID-19,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “As a result, we expect some pullback in the recovery through the end of the year as people are more cautious about face-to-face interactions, disproportionately affecting the service sector.”
Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:
- Texas jobs grew 10.6 percent (annualized) in October after increasing a revised 4.7 percent (annualized) in September. Employment is down 6.5 percent year-to-date.
- The Texas Leading Index increased for the sixth consecutive month in October, indicating continued positive growth over the next six months.
- Job gains were broad-based across private service and goods-producing sectors, with leisure and hospitality leading growth and continuing to add back jobs at rapid pace.
- The Dallas Fed’s early benchmark of second-quarter employment data indicates that employment losses were slightly more pronounced during the depths of the onset of COVID-19 in the spring. Total employment declined at a 26.3 percent annualized pace, compared to a previously estimated 22.5 percent.
- The Texas unemployment rate decreased from 8.3 percent in September to 6.9 percent in October, the same as the U.S. rate.
- Unemployment rates fell in all nine major Texas metro areas in October, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.
Behind the numbers: Read how the impact of COVID-19 on small service firms clouds Texas jobs estimates on Dallas Fed Economics.
Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates may be found on DallasFed.org.
(News release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)