Dallas Fed: Texas added 26,100 jobs in May, employment forecast weakens

State & Regional

(Photo provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

DALLAS (NEWS RELEASE) — The following is a news release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas:

Texas added 26,100 jobs in May, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released [Friday] by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 23,000 jobs in April. The state has added 204,200 jobs year-to-date.

Using a top-down model based on national forecasts, COVID-19 hospitalizations and oil futures prices, the Texas Employment Forecast estimates that that job growth will increase by 4.1 percent in 2021, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.2 to 5.0 percent.

The forecast weakened from the 6.6 percent estimated with the release of the April data.

“The forecast was revised down this month primarily due to an upward revision in the anticipated path of COVID-19 hospitalizations,” said Keith Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “While the percentage of Texans vaccinated against COVID-19 continues to increase, the pace of vaccinations has slowed, and the more contagious Delta variant is spreading. Together, these two patterns have changed the outlook for COVID-19 hospitalizations in the third quarter from a consistent downward trend to a slight increase through September. Since the summer of 2020, the strength of the recovery has been negatively correlated with COVID-19 hospitalizations.”  

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:

  • Based on the forecast, 510,500 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2021 will be 12.8 million.
  • The Texas Leading Index continued to increase strongly in May.
  • Unemployment rates declined in all nine major Texas metro areas in May, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.
  • The Texas unemployment rate declined slightly from 6.7 percent in April to 6.5 percent in May.

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates may be found on DallasFed.org.

(News release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

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