LUBBOCK, Texas (PRESS RELEASE) — The following is a press release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas:
Texas added 72,300 jobs in July, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released [Friday] by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The state added a revised 44,400 jobs in June. The state has added 277,200 jobs year-to-date.
Using a top-down model based on national forecasts, COVID-19 hospitalizations and oil futures prices, the Texas Employment Forecast estimates that that jobs will increase by 4.3 percent in 2021, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.6 to 5.0 percent.
The forecast weakened from the 5.6 percent estimated with the release of the June data.
“Job growth during the first part of the year when COVID-19 cases were at very high levels was weaker than previously estimated. The recent surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations in Texas and the forecast for continued high levels of hospitalizations at least through late September is exerting some downward pressure on the forecast,” said Keith Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “Our business contacts report continued strong demand but difficulty expanding due to a lack of job applicants and supply chain bottlenecks. Contacts note little labor market loosening since federal unemployment benefits ended at the end of June and also concern that the labor market will remain tight as the surge in COVID-19 cases may create caution among workers in high contact industries and continued child care issues.”
Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:
- Based on the forecast, 527,700 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2021 will be 12.9 million.
- The Texas Leading Index declined moderately in July.
- Unemployment rates declined in all nine major Texas metro areas in July, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.
- The Texas unemployment rate declined slightly from 6.5 percent in June to 6.2 percent in July.
Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates may be found on DallasFed.org.
(Press release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)