DALLAS (NEWS RELEASE) — The following is a news release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas:
Texas added 71,400 jobs in August, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The state unemployment rate fell from a revised 8.0 percent in July to 6.8 percent in August.
Using a top-down model based on national forecasts, COVID-19 infection rates and oil futures prices, we estimate that Texas jobs will continue to recover the remainder of the year but not enough to fully offset the steep losses in March and April. The Texas Employment Forecast projects jobs will decline 4.8 percent this year (December/December). Based on the forecast, 619,000 jobs will be lost in the state this year, and employment in December 2020 will be 12.3 million.
“A significant decline in new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in Texas since the second half of July is good news for the economic recovery, although a rise in cases in the past week is concerning,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “Currently, we expect job growth to be about 3.0 percent in the last four months of the year. If the recent rise in new cases continues, however, job growth will likely be weaker.”
Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:
- Texas jobs rose 7.3 percent (annualized) in August after increasing a revised 1.8 percent (annualized) in July. Employment is down 8.4 percent year to date.
- After bouncing back in May and June, jobs in leisure and hospitality declined significantly in July and moderately in August. Oil and gas sector jobs fell sharply in August, while local government jobs continued to increase strongly.
- Across the large metro areas, job growth was below the state pace in Houston and Ft. Worth, near the state pace in San Antonio and above the state pace in Austin, Dallas and El Paso.
- Unemployment rates fell in all nine of the major Texas metro areas in August, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.
Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates may be found on DallasFed.org.
(News release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)