UT model predicts sharp climb in Texas COVID-19 deaths by end of August

State & Regional

AUSTIN, Texas (KXAN) — With active cases of COVID-19 in slight decline around Texas, a projection by modelers at the University of Texas at Austin raises new concerns. It suggests there will be 15,000 more deaths in Texas over the next three weeks.

The model by UT’s College of Natural Sciences predicts that more than 23,000 Texans will die as a result of COVID-19 by Aug. 31. Currently 8,459 Texans have died since the pandemic began. The predicted escalation would represent a 177% increase by Aug. 31.

UT modelers base their projection on current social distancing data they glean from geolocation cell phone data.

The model’s prediction was actually a little modest for deaths by July 31. It originally predicted 6,000 COVID-19 deaths in the state by that time, but there were 7,265 deaths.

The state reported 116 new COVID-19 deaths Sunday, along with 4,800 new cases. It would need to average more than 700 new deaths a day to make the UT prediction true.

UT’s minimum number of projected deaths was 20,655 and its maximum was 26,726 deaths in Texas.

(Information from KXAN.com)


EverythingLubbock.com continues ongoing coverage of the coronavirus (COVID-19) as it impacts Lubbock, the South Plains region, Texas and the U.S.


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