LUBBOCK, Texas — KAMC Meteorologist Jacob Riley has your Monday morning forecast. Sponsored by J Ferg Pros.
Today: Winter mix. High of 32°. Winds NE 20-30 MPH.
Tonight: Winter mix. Low of 24°. Winds NE 20-30 MPH.
Tomorrow: Winter mix. High of 32°. Winds NE 15-25 MPH.
As we start off our Monday, wintry precipitation is beginning to move into the South Plains. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the shaded counties below until 7:00 PM CDT this evening. In this region, light freezing rain and freezing drizzle is expected throughout the day on Monday. Curry and Roosevelt counties in eastern New Mexico are under a Winter Storm Warning until 6:00 PM MDT on Wednesday. In Lubbock, 4-7 inches of snowfall is expected with ice accumulations under 0.10″.
The freezing drizzle and freezing rain will create a thin layer of black ice on area bridges and overpasses, making travel hazardous. Be sure to factor in extra time for your morning commute, and do not use cruise control. High travel impacts will remain Monday through Thursday morning.
High temperatures on Monday will only top out around freezing. Light drizzle and light rain is expected to occur across the entire KAMC viewing area from midnight Monday morning until the late afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be quite gusty out of the northeast, keeping wind chill values in the 10s and 20s all day long. Precipitation amounts will be light on Monday, with most locations remaining below 1/10th of an inch.
Monday night into Tuesday morning, we will see more widespread precipitation move into the region. A Winter Storm Watch goes into effect for the shaded counties below from 7 PM Monday evening until 7 AM Wednesday morning. In this region, up to 0.50″ of ice accumulation and several inches of snow will be possible.
This will continue to make travel conditions dangerous across the South Plains overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will fall into the middle 20s area-wide. Northwestern portions of the South Plains will likely transition over to more of a snow/sleet mix. In Lubbock, I expect us to see more of a sleet/freezing rain event. Winds will remain quite breezy out of the northeast overnight, resulting in wind chill values in the single digits by Tuesday morning.
Throughout the entirety of the day on Tuesday, we will see a consistent wintry mix across the entire South Plains region. Areas to the northwest of Lubbock will continue to see more of a snow/sleet mix, whereas Lubbock will see more of a sleet/freezing rain event. Ice accumulations will really begin to add up throughout the day, with some areas seeing close to 0.50″ of ice accumulation. This would create widespread power outages. Crops that are still out in the field will likely be significantly damaged. Northwestern portions of the South Plains could see 1″-2″ of snowfall by the time we get into Tuesday night.
Overnight Tuesday, the upper level low pressure system will move closer towards the South Plains. This will significantly amplify our precipitation rates. The exact track of this low pressure system will determine which type of precipitation we will see. As of now, I think the center of the low will pass through northwestern portions of the South Plains. This will keep the primary precipitation type in Lubbock a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Northwestern portions of the South Plains will see a mixture of sleet and snow, whereas the Rolling Plains and Big Country will mainly see freezing rain. Lows will bottom out in the middle to upper 20s with northeasterly winds gusting upwards of 30 MPH. The stronger winds combined with the ice on power lines will likely result in power outages across the entire area.
During the first half of Wednesday, we will see temperatures remain below freezing as precipitation begins to wrap up across the South Plains. All across the South Plains, we will have the possibility to transition over to snow for a short window. The area of the South Plains that has the greatest likelihood of this happening will be over the northwestern half of the region. This low pressure system could drop a quick 1-2 inches of snowfall as it exits the region.
Overall, the maps below show what I am currently forecasting for the South Plains.
The highest probability of snowfall will remain over northwestern portions of the South Plains, with some locations seeing upwards of 5+ inches. For Lubbock, I expect snowfall totals to remain below 1 inch. The EURO is the most aggressive with snow in the Hub City, with the NAM being the most conservative.
This event will pose more of an ice threat for the Hub City and points to the northeast. Ice accumulation could very well exceed half of an inch by Wednesday afternoon. In Lubbock, I expect us to see somewhere close to 1/4th of an inch of ice accumulation.
There are still a lot of details that need to be ironed out with this forecast, and it will likely change over the next several hours. We will keep you advised, so please stay up to date with the KAMC Storm Team across social media, and right here on everythinglubbock.com.
Have a safe and warm Monday!
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