LUBBOCK, Texas — KAMC Meteorologist Lance Blocker has this evening’s forecast. Sponsored by J Ferg Pros.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of 62°. South wind, 20-30 mph.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy to start the day, but becoming partly cloudy tomorrow afternoon. Warmer with an afternoon high of 80°. Variable wind, 15-25 mph.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with an overnight low of 60°. South winds, 5-15 mph.
The big story is this week’s potential for showers and thunderstorms across the region, so we will start off with that. As you can see with the two graphics above, disagreement is still ongoing within the model data about this upcoming event. The global forecast models have consistently kept the dry line to the east, which limits showers and thunderstorms to the Rolling Plains. However, the latest North American Model update does allow for the dryline to retreat farther west, and give the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to impact central portions of the South Plains including Lubbock. In fact, there are even a few showers and thunderstorms showing up in Gaines County according to this update.
We are currently forecasting about a 20% chance of rain during the afternoon Tuesday, with a bump to about 40% Tuesday night. This forecast is subject to change as we get closer to the event and examine new data and forecast model updates.
Severe Weather Potential: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of the South Plains to a Level 2 out of 5 “Slight Risk” for severe weather with this system. This is mainly for the overnight hours, but a few isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible for southeastern portions of the region Tuesday afternoon. The primary threat will be large hail and damaging winds, but a tornado threat will also be possible during the afternoon hours.
There is a legitimate chance this severe weather risk area will be shifted somewhat to the east or southeast, but we will wait for the SPC to provide an update so we are all maintaining the same messaging. Regardless, Tuesday will be a “Weather Aware” day across the South Plains and the KAMC Weatherlab is fully prepared to be activated throughout the afternoon and evening to provide you the latest updates.
A few wrap-around showers will be possible Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, but we will begin to clear out as we end the week. Next weekend is looking great with calm weather building in and warmer temperatures ahead Saturday and Sunday.
Have a great evening!
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