LUBBOCK, Texas — KAMC Meteorologist Lance Blocker has your Thursday evening forecast. Sponsored by J Ferg Pros.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of 76°. Southwest wind 10-20 mph.
Friday: A few afternoon clouds and hot with an afternoon high of 104°. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy and mild overnight with a low of 76°. A stray thunderstorm is possible before midnight.
The South Plains is under a Heat Advisory through 8pm tonight, with afternoon high temperatures ranging from 105-110° for the region. A couple isolated thunderstorms could develop with the max heating of the day, though the majority of us will stay dry.
Any storms that develop have the potential to be on the stronger side wind gusts up to 60mph possible. With that being said, I’d like to emphasize again that only a couple storms are possible for the entire region, so most of us will stay dry. This is the complexity of forecasting with a “dirty” high pressure! There is plenty of moisture in the upper atmosphere, but high pressure is dominating the region with sinking air. It would take a lot for any storm development to occur.
Friday will essentially be a repeat of today; however, a few more storms are possible. The wind threat will remain possible with any storms that develop, and could reach severe criteria. We have included a 10% chance of storms during the late afternoon and evening hours. The heat will be the primary story with record-breaking temperatures likely; Lubbock’s record high temperature is 103° and we expect to at least tie that.
Saturday’s afternoon high temperatures will max out in the upper-90s. A few isolated storms will be possible, once again, before a better chance of rain arrives Sunday. The EURO ensemble model has 35/49 members producing rain across the South Plains, while the GFS model has 20/20 members producing rain. This is a great outlook for Sunday, so we have increased our rain chances to 20% for the late afternoon and early evening. This may trend to 30% or more depending on how the short-term models handle the forecast.
Next week looks GREAT! Afternoon high temperatures are expected to hover around 90° which will be a welcome change for all of us. The noticeable change is due to northwesterly flow returning to the region, ushering in more bearable temperatures. We could not be more excited about this because it also includes a chance for isolated showers daily through Wednesday! We will continue to monitor the latest model outputs, but we are consistently forecasting that temperatures will drop off the record-breaking warmth over the last couple months.
Is this the end of the 100°+ weather for the summer? Unlikely. Long-term models warm the region into the mid-90s the following weekend, and we will continue to monitor the forecast trends.
For now, be sure to drink plenty of fluids the next couple of days, then enjoy the great weather on the way!
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