LUBBOCK, Texas — KAMC Meteorologist Lance Blocker has your Friday evening forecast. Sponsored by J Ferg Pros.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy overnight with a low of 57°. Southwest winds 5-15 mph..
Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy through the day, with an afternoon high of 81°. Variable winds, gusting to over 35 mph possible.
Sunday Night: Light wintery mix possible with an overnight low of 32°. Chance of precipitation: 20%.
We are focusing all of our attention on the upcoming winter storm set to impact portions of the South Plains this week. Sunday’s weather will be mild, and give little hint of what is to come. We’ll reach an afternoon high in the low-80s for the Hub City, prior to the cold front’s arrival during the early afternoon hours. Winds will pick up through the afternoon, gusting to over 35 mph at times.
Once the cold front moves through, expect temperatures to drop quickly. A wintery mix of precipitation will be possible Sunday night, especially for northern counties of the South Plains. Be careful as you head out for work or school Monday morning. Though we do not expect significant travel difficulties Monday morning, we still need to be aware of any slick spots on elevated bridges and overpasses. Take it easy!
Isolated areas of freezing rain and winter mix will be possible throughout the Monday and Monday night. Tuesday will see the greatest risk for accumulating frozen precipitation across the region. The forecast models are still not in great agreement, but they are becoming more aligned with each update we receive. The European model (shown above) favors an ice event, with significant amounts of freezing rain and sleet possible. If the European model verifies, power outages will be possible and travel will become very hazardous Tuesday.
On the other hand, the American Model (GFS) favors a snowfall event with less ice. Both outcomes point toward a widespread, significant winter weather event in the region. Is there a chance this completely falls apart and we see mostly cold rain? Absolutely! But unfortunately, the data we are receiving does not make that “busted” forecast likely.
Our goal at the KAMC Stormteam Weatherlab is to provide you with the latest information available and our most accurate forecast so you can make the most informed preparations for your schedule. As of now, we expect widespread winter weather likely with 1-3″ of snow possible for the Hub City and up to 0.10″ of ice. That is essentially a compromise between both the GFS and European forecast models. This will absolutely be updated as we get closer to Tuesday.
When will we gain more confidence about the forecast? We expect to have a much better idea of what to expect Sunday night and Monday for Tuesday’s forecast. That will allow the local, rapid refresh weather models to provide more accurate data for us to develop our forecast.
The upper level low that is producing this mess of a storm will begin to push out of the region Wednesday, with only isolated rain or snow showers possible through the early afternoon. The remainder of the week will build into a warming trend, returning our weather to more seasonal values by Saturday.
We will keep you updated!
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