LUBBOCK, Texas — KAMC Meteorologist Ron Roberts has your Monday evening forecast. Sponsored by J Ferg Pros.
Tonight: Winter mix. Low of 23°. Winds NE 20-30 MPH.
Tomorrow: Winter mix. High of 31°. Winds NE 15-25 MPH.
As we continue through the evening and overnight hours tonight, a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow will re-enter the South Plains from southwest to northeast. A Winter Storm Warning goes into effect at 7 PM CDT this evening, lasting through 1 PM CDT Wednesday afternoon. In this region, 1-6 inches of snow and up to 1/4th of an inch of ice accumulation will be possible in the warned area. Borden and Scurry counties are under an Ice Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Wednesday morning for ice accumulations upwards of 0.30″-0.40″. Ice accumulation across the entire South Plains region will be great enough to cause power outages and significant crop/tree damage.
Tonight, I expect precipitation to begin to redevelop after midnight. Our wintry mix will quickly spread and encompass most of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. By sunrise, the heaviest of the freezing rain will be located off of the caprock, into the Rolling Plains. To the west of Lubbock, we will see light snow showers. Wind chill values Tuesday morning will be close to the single digits. I expect Lubbock to remain a bit drier throughout the day, with light freezing drizzle and light snow flurries continuing on and off. High temperatures will struggle to make it into the 30s area-wide. Wind chill values will remain in the 10s and 20s all afternoon.
By Tuesday evening, we will see precipitation increase across the South Plains, especially after 8 PM. This precipitation may start off as freezing rain or sleet for some locations. As time progresses, our dominating precipitation type will become snow. The low pressure system driving this winter storm will move closer to the KAMC viewing area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The exact track of this low will determine a lot for our region. Precipitation will come to an end by Wednesday afternoon.
If the low pressure system takes more of a southerly track, we will see the possibility of higher snowfall totals in the city of Lubbock, and locations further to the south and east. If the low pressure system moves to the north of Lubbock, the hub city will likely see minimal snowfall totals, with our main precipitation type remaining as sleet and freezing rain. This is a detail models are still disagreeing with, so we will continue to keep you advised.
Based off of the current model data and surface observations, this is our forecast. For the city of Lubbock, we are expecting 2-4″ of snowfall, up to 1/2 an inch of sleet, and up to 0.20″ of freezing rain. The maps below show what we expect across the entire region.
The one thing that we are 100% certain about is that we will see widespread, significant travel impacts across the entire South Plains and Rolling Plains regions. We will continue to see these impacts until Thursday morning. PLEASE slow down, factor in extra time for your morning commute and plan accordingly to this forecast. You life, and our first responders life’s, are not worth the risk.
We will continue to monitor the latest data and surface observations, and we will keep you advised. Have a safe and warm work week!
Facebook: Meteorologist Jacob Riley