LUBBOCK, Texas — KAMC Meteorologist Jacob Riley has your Sunday evening forecast. Sponsored by J Ferg Pros.
TONIGHT: Temperatures will be just a tad warmer tonight. We will wake up to temperatures in the middle 30s on Monday morning under a partly cloudy sky. Winds will be out of the west-northwest around 8-12 MPH.
MONDAY: It will be another warm day across the region on Monday! High temperatures will top out in the lower 70s across the region, with a few middle to upper 70s possible off the cap-rock. Winds will gust over 25 MPH at times out of the west on Monday. This is part of the reason temperatures will be above average! As we go throughout the day, moisture will increase from the southwest. This will result in an increase in cloud coverage in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. As we head into the overnight hours, we will keep the clouds around. Overnight lows will be fairly mild! By Tuesday morning, temperatures will only be in the middle 40s!
TUESDAY: On Tuesday, a low pressure system will track just to the north of the Texas panhandle. This will bring us a cold front during the late morning and early afternoon hours on Tuesday. Thanks to this upper level system, winds will be very strong across the area. Winds will gust over 50 MPH at times on Tuesday, with sustained winds from the west-northwest around 30-35 MPH. A Wind Advisory has already been issued for the Texas panhandle until 6 PM Tuesday evening.
High temperatures will top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Overnight on Tuesday, we will see temperatures plummet into the upper 20s and lower 30s under a partly cloudy sky. Winds will subside overnight.
WEDNESDAY: On Wednesday, our forecast get a bit complicated. I am going to explain what will happen to the best of my ability, so bare with me through the remainder of this post.
If you plan on traveling across the area on Wednesday, I suggest that you get to where you need to be by 7 PM Wednesday evening.
A trough will begin to dig over California on Wednesday. This trough will increase our moisture content across the South Plains. This trough will being in moisture from the southwest. As we head into the late afternoon and early evening hours, precipitation will begin to develop across the region. Precipitation will increase from southwest to northeast. High temperatures on Wednesday will peak in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
As we head into the evening hours, our temperatures will cool off just a tad. Portions of the area will be below freezing. We will see a transition from rain to a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and a few snowflakes.
The biggest uncertainty with this event is with the temperatures. We will be close to freezing across the area, but a few variables will be changing throughout the evening and overnight hours. Our cloud coverage and moisture content will keep our temperatures from cooling off. Our winds will start to become more southerly, which will bring in warmer air.
If the warm air moves in quick enough, we will likely see just a cold rain event. If the atmosphere is able to cool itself off enough, we will see a longer duration of a wintry mix.
Right now, we are forecasting a wintry mix Wednesday night into Thursday morning for areas to the northwest of a line from Seminole, to O’Donnell, to Ralls and then to Paducah. This area could see light accumulations of freezing rain, sleet or snow. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 30s.
THANKSGIVING: Throughout the morning hours on Thursday, we will warm across the area. If a wintry mix does in fact develop, it will transition back to rain by noon on Thursday.
Rain showers will continue throughout the early afternoon hours on Thursday. We will keep a cloudy sky around throughout the day, with high temperatures peaking near 40 degrees. Overnight, temperatures will be warmer, only falling into the upper 30s. If you plan on waiting in line for and Black Friday deals, bring the rain jacket. Showers will begin to move back into the area on Friday.
FRIDAY: Friday will be much warmer across the area, with highs in the lower 60s. Another cold front will begin to approach the area by Friday evening. This will result in wind gusts over 35 MPH at times on Friday. Overnight, lows will fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
SATURDAY: Saturday will be cooler across the region, with high temperatures in the lower 50s. The cold front will completely move through the region, bringing a chance of a morning shower or two. We will dry out during the afternoon hours with more sunshine across the South Plains. Overnight lows will cool off into the middle to upper 20s due to maximum radiational cooling (mostly clear sky and light winds).
SUNDAY: Sunday will be a cold day with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Winds will be out of the north around 20 MPH, giving us wind chill values in the upper 30s. Overnight lows will be cold, bottoming out in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Have a wonderful week, and a happy Thanksgiving!
Facebook: Meteorologist Jacob Riley
(This post was updated at 10:43 PM to add the forecast video)