Good afternoon from the KAMC Weatherlab! This is Meteorologist Lance Blocker with a quick update on today’s severe weather potential. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded nearly all of the South Plains to a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather. This will mark the beginning of a very active severe weather period which has the potential to last off and on through the end of next week. The good news is we are likely to see impressive 7-day rainfall totals ranging from 0.20″-1.25″+ across much of the region. The bad news is we will have the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes during this extended stretch of stormy weather. We will focus on today’s severe potential in this discussion, but I will look ahead toward the end of the post at Sunday and Monday’s severe threat too.
Thunderstorms will begin to develop in eastern New Mexico later today in response to daytime heating and plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture across the region. These storms will slowly drift to the east. As the afternoon progresses, a mid-level shortwave will push across New Mexico and enhance thunderstorm develop closer to the Texas, New Mexico border.
Isolated thunderstorms will become a more organized complex of storms as they progress to the east this evening after 6pm. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding in the strongest storms in addition to the severe threat.
The potential for severe weather will last into the overnight hours regardless of the loss of daytime heating; however, storms will weaken well after midnight as the push through the Rolling Plains.
…SUNDAY & MONDAY…
Severe thunderstorms will be possible once again Sunday afternoon. The primary threat will be for large hail and damaging winds. There is a low end threat for a tornado or two across the region in any discreet supercells that develop. All of Sunday’s activity is expected to be similar to today’s, except it should be more of a broken line or individual storms.
Monday once again has a threat of severe weather across our region, through activity will shift somewhat to the northeast. The specifics on this event are less clear at this time, so I will simply leave it at that and provide an additional update once the data has a greater consensus.
For today, keep it on KAMC News at 6 and 10pm for additional updates. Have a way to receive severe weather warnings this week, and be prepared to take appropriate action if severe weather is expected to impact your region.
Have a great Saturday afternoon and keep an eye to the sky!