LUBBOCK, Texas — KLBK Meteorologist Jack Maney has your Monday morning weather update!

Today: Muggy and a little hot, with storms developing in the evening. Chance of rain: 70%. High of 91°. Winds S 12-18 MPH.
Tonight:
A complex of storms rolls through, with heavy rain likely and some damaging wind gusts possible. Chance of rain: 70%. Low of 67°. Winds ENE 10-15 MPH.
Tomorrow:
A bit of rain lingering in the morning, with storms potentially redeveloping in the afternoon. High of 83°. Chance of rain: 50%. Winds ENE 10-15 MPH.

Enjoy the rain yesterday? That might have just been a warmup for today, as another complex of more widespread storms is expected to arrive this evening!

Humid air is left in the wake of yesterday’s thunderstorms, but we will stay mostly dry through the morning and early afternoon. It may feel a bit muggy at times, with clouds slowly increasing into the afternoon. Once we reach peak heating in the afternoon, temperatures will be around 91 degrees, and thunderstorms will start to erupt over the South Plains once again, becoming more numerous into the early evening and congealing into a large complex of thunderstorms after sunset.

The MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) will roll generally from north to south once it reaches maturity, and it will be capable of at least low-end severe weather with wind gusts to about 65 mph and a few hailstones around quarter size especially early. Flash flooding will also be a concern tonight, with rainfall over a half inch likely for many locations and some localized 1″+ totals falling in a short period of time.

Rain may linger into the early morning hours of Tuesday, with temperatures dipping down to the mid 60s. Rain should end by mid-morning for all of the south plains, and then we’ll start the process over. The sun should come out for a few hours around midday, warming us up and priming the atmosphere for another round of possible storms. The big sticking point for tomorrow is that it will be driven primarily by remnant boundaries left by tonight’s storms, so there is still very low certainty on how the storms tomorrow will evolve, and as a result rain chances are a bit lower tomorrow at 50%.

Rain chances will slowly taper off as drier air begins a gradual takeover of the area later in the week, though a few stray storms will linger through late week and into the weekend. High pressure in the upper levels will build out west, delivering a heat wave west of the Rockies, but we will remain on the fringes of the high, which will leave the door open for rain chances and also leaves us with light winds and storm chances from time to time into early next week.

Enjoy the rain tonight!

Jack Maney

KLBK 7-Day Forecast
August 29th, 2022