LUBBOCK, Texas — KLBK Meteorologist Jack Maney has your Monday morning weather update!

Today: Another hot day with storms moving in from the west this evening. Chance of rain: 30%. High of 94°. Winds SE 15-20 MPH.
Tonight: A mild, calm night. Low of 68°. Winds N 5-10 MPH.
Very hot and mostly sunny. Chance of rain: 10%. High of 101°. Winds SW 15-20 MPH.

Our early-season heat wave will continue today, but in a slightly different form. Instead of triple digits, we’ll see mid-90s with higher humidity today, but thankfully that higher humidity will lead to some thunderstorms and sorely needed rain by this evening!

Moist air has been filtering in on easterly winds overnight, which kept our morning lows warm in the upper 60s and brought cloudcover to the area. Those clouds will break some through the daym giving partly cloudy conditions for the afternoon. The sunshine we see will push highs into the 90s once again amid notably higher humidity than we had over the weekend, and this will play a role in bringing us rain chances this evening.

Storms are expected to initiate off the dry line in eastern New Mexico around peak heating this afternoon, and those will quickly move east into our area just before sunset. These storms will be very high-based and wind shear will be fairly weak, so there will be no tornado threat this evening. However, damaging winds to 75 mph and large hail up to 2″ will be possible with some of the stronger storms that form. The latest model guidance is favoring the northern half of the KLBK viewing area for a complex of storms moving through in the late evening, generally from 8pm to midnight. Rainfall amounts will not be too heavy, between 0.1″ and 0.25″ for areas that see storms, so flooding will not be much of an issue either.

Storms will clear in the early overnight hours, leaving us with some rain-cooled air in the region, though lows should still be mild in the mid to upper 60s.

Tomorrow, the dry line will advance into the area, and it will switch winds around to the southwest and shove our highs right back up into the triple digits for areas on the west side of it. A few showers may try to form on the dry line east of Lubbock tomorrow afternoon, but chances of this are looking pretty slim, only around 10%. Otherwise, a hot day is expected for our Tuesday.

Extended Forecast:

Storm chances will be scant through the end of the week, with summer-like heat in the upper 90s and low 100s continuing until Friday. At the end of the week, we will finally see some relief from the heat as the pattern shifts enough to allow cold air to spill into the plains. The upper high will shift west with a trough diving into the northern plains, and the cold front this will produce looks quite stout. A solid 20-degree cooldown will give us a much better time this coming weekend, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Unfortunately, the front should arrive dry, and rain chances will be low through the weekend.

Keep your fingers crossed for rain tonight, and have a magnificent Monday!

Jack Maney

KLBK 7-Day Forecast
May 16th, 2022