LUBBOCK, Texas — KLBK Meteorologist Jack Maney has your Monday morning weather update!
Today: Partly cloudy and warm. Storms develop in the afternoon. Chance of rain: 40% High of 85°. Winds SW 12-18 MPH
Tonight: Cool and calm. Low of 62°. Winds S 0-5 MPH.
Tomorrow: A touch warmer, but still quite pleasant! High of 87°. Winds SW 18-23 MPH.
We’ve finally got some storm chances in the forecast! This afternoon, a wave of storms is expected across the area, generally developing after 5pm as a weak impulse moves through in the upper levels. Scattered storm development can be anticipated generally west of the I-27 corridor, with chances up to about 40% this afternoon west of Lubbock and out to the NM state line. Partly cloudy skies will be the case before storms develop, and we should hit a high temperature a few degrees above average at 85 this afternoon.
Tonight, storms should be over and done by about midnight, and in their wake, a calm and partly cloudy night with a low of 60.
Tomorrow, the upper level low that is giving us our rain chances will pivot northward and be absorbed into the jet stream flow, which will leave us more dry and warm for Tuesday and Wednesday. I’m expecting temperatures to come up a few degrees tomorrow with a high of 87 and mostly sunny skies. Winds will also be a bit stronger tomorrow, SW at 18-23mph.
Another, much stronger trough of low pressure in the jet stream is going to approach our area on Thursday, bringing a cold front and more storm chances to the area. Right now, there is still a lot of disagreement in the forecast models for this low, and subtle differences in the track and strength of this feature will have large impacts on how much rain we see and how cool it gets. Right now, I am leaning a bit more toward the wetter model solutions provided by the ECMWF model, but given the significant disagreement in the extended term, I will not be taking our rain chances later this week higher than 40% for now. We will be keeping a close eye on the evolution of this forecast, and you can always count on KLBK to bring you the latest forecast any time!
Have a magnificent Monday!