LUBBOCK, Texas — KLBK Meteorologist Jack Maney has your Monday morning weather update!

Today: A fairly nice day is shaping up for our MLK Day, but it will still be a bit windy this afternoon with sustained winds from the west at 20 to 25 mph. Highs will be mildly cool in the mid 60s for Lubbock, with low 60s near the state line and low 70s in the Rolling Plains. Skies will start out mostly clear but clouds slowly increase later in the day, with partly cloudy skies expected.

Tonight: Clouds continue to increase overnight, slowing the nightly cooldown and giving us morning lows in the mid 40s once again.

Tomorrow: As an upper level storm system approaches, we will see persistent cloudcover throughout the day. While the clouds will help to maintain separation between the surface and stronger winds aloft, breezy conditions will continue with southwest winds of 18-23 mph. The clouds might try to open up a little and give us some much-needed rainfall, though anything that does form will be light and not amount to much, with the heaviest amounts likely less than 0.1”. Highs will remain mild in the low to mid 60s.

Scattered light showers will be possible Tuesday evening

Extended Forecast:

As the upper trough swings east, it brings a cold front through and that will bring another round of strong winds back to our forecast for Wednesday. Skies will be mostly clear, which allows momentum from the upper levels to translate down to the surface, and wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph look likely during the afternoon. Highs will come down closer to normal in the mid to upper 50s.

Winds decrease back to more reasonable levels on Thursday and temperatures will remain cool and close to average for this time of the year, expecting a light freeze in the morning with a low of 30 and 54 degrees for the high.

Another cool, mostly calm day with mostly sunny skies and a south breeze at 15 to 20 mph. Clouds will start to increase late in the day.

Upper level pattern heading into Saturday with a strong low pressure system approaching from the west.

Saturday’s forecast is highly uncertain and holds the potential for either a breezy and chilly but day or our first notable precipitation event in well over a month! An upper level storm system will dive through the desert southwest and bring some arctic air with it, and it will allow some time for moisture to build ahead of it. This looks like a potentially promising setup for some rain or perhaps snow, but it comes down to the exact track the system takes.

GFS Model forecast has a faster, shallower system farther north. In this scenario, Lubbock stays dry.
European Model shows a deeper, slower system further south. This scenario would greatly increase our precipitation chances.

Some models put the low further north and keep our area firmly in the dry slot, while others push the low directly through the South Plains area and set up a deformation band overhead, which could produce over half an inch of rain or, if temperatures come in cold enough, some localized accumulating snow. There are too many ways for this scenario to not play out in a memorable way, so we are not locking this one in just yet. As models come into agreement on the evolution of this system, we will begin to become more confident in the impacts we will see. For now, expect a slight chance of precipitation and chillier temperatures in the 40s for Saturday and Sunday. Be sure to check back with the KLBK First Warning weather team for the latest updates!

Jack Maney

KLBK 7-Day Forecast
January 16th, 2023