LUBBOCK, Texas — KLBK Meteorologist Jack Maney has your Thursday morning weather update!
Today: Less windy, clear with more high fire danger. High of 78°. Winds SSW 12-18 MPH.
Tonight: Humid air moves in overnight, keeping morning lows on the mild side. Low of 53°. Winds S 5-10 MPH.
Tomorrow: A bit hot, high fire danger returns in the afternoon. High of 88°. Winds WSW 12-18 MPH
Weather conditions continue to improve today, but even with lighter winds, our fire weather threat will continue this afternoon. Very dry air left over in the wake of yesterday’s cold front gave us a chilly start to the day, but that won’t stop us from warming quickly to the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon! Skies will remain clear all day, and in the absence of any large scale storm system influcences, our winds will stay gentle and under control, out of the southwest around 12 to 18 mph. Despite the respite from the strong winds we’ve had all week, super dry air is going to lead to another day of Red Flag Warnings over most of the South Plains. Relative humidity values will dip back to the low single-digits this afternoon, plenty dry to be concerning, though fires will not spread as explosively thanks to the lighter winds.
Tonight, winds will be calm, but a wave of humid air will sweep in from the south, which will see humidity values recovering substantially by Friday morning and keeping our morning lows mild, in the low 50s.
That warmer morning low tomorrow will poise us for an even warmer afternoon tomorrow as winds turn more out of the west. Downslope wind trajectories will help to push highs to near 90 degrees for Friday! Very warm and dry air will work in by the evening, and humidities will fall far enough to once again be a concern for fire danger Friday afternoon. Some high clouds will appear in our skies, but no rain will occur.
Easter weekend will start with a weak cool front sagging into the area, basically dying on the doorstep as it rolls in. It will give us a bit of a cooldown for Saturday, with highs mostly in the mid-70s. Nice, warm weather will persist for Easter Sunday, with temperatures rising to the mid-80s and skies staying mostly clear.
The upper level pattern is looking quiet for the next week, with the jet stream retreating further to the north and leaving us generally under the influence of high pressure aloft for most of the week ahead. A weak disturbance passing by to our north will push another cold front in on Monday, and this one might develop a weak surface low along it as it moves in. Models are hinting that this weak system could find a bit of moisture to play around with, and some low-end rain chances are possible on Tuesday. There’s still a lot of disagreement between the models on this system, so I’m not locking us in on it just yet. For now, we’ll just have to hope that this continues trending in a direction that means rainfall for our severely parched region.