LUBBOCK, Texas — KLBK Meteorologist Jack Maney has your Tuesday morning weather update!

Today: Hot and a bit humid, storms likely in the evening! Chance of rain: 70%. High of 95°. Winds S 15-20 MPH.
Tonight: A cool, humid night after storms clear the area. Low of 67°. Winds SE 10-15 MPH.
Very warm and humid, scattered storms west in the evening. Chance of rain: 30%. High of 90°. Winds SSE 18-23 MPH.

After a hot, humid afternoon, West Texas will finally get the rain we so desperately need this evening as a line of strong to severe thunderstorms moves across the South Plains!

Humid air is moving back into the area today, with the dry line retreating west this morning. That muggy air will be uncomfortably hot this afternoon as temperatures soar into the mid-90s and even triple digits in the Rolling Plains. Clouds will begin to increase through the afternoon as the low levels of the atmosphere heat up and turn over.

The dry line should be set up somewhere near the TX/NM border this evening and will serve as the focus for storm development. The environment today is primed for heavy rainfall, with rich moisture in place and lots of instability expected to develop by the afternoon. The cap will be very weak to nonexistent, and so storms will have no trouble firing up. The wind shear in the atmosphere today is on the weak side, so storms will tend to grow in clusters and move slowly, with little threat of producing tornadoes. However, given the degree of instability expected today, strong winds are expected to be a bit of an issue with these storms, with damaging wind gusts warranting a level 3/5 Enhanced Risk for the South Plains, and this includes the Lubbock metro!

Storms will be moving fairly slow and putting out quite good rainfall rates, so rainfall amounts could reach over 1″ in some places by the time all is said and done. Storm coverage will also be quite good, so it looks like this is the beneficial rainfall event that we have been praying for these past months!

And the good news doesn’t end there! Rain chances will not be one and done this week, as daily thunderstorm chances are expected all week long. Wednesday-Friday do not look quite as widespread or heavy as the event today, but we could add to rainfall totals for some folks through the week. Tomorrow’s rain appears to be focused over eastern NM, where folks will largely miss out on today’s rain, which is excellent to see!

Temperatures over the next week will remain quite warm, but more manageable with lots of upper 80s and low 90s expected over the area.

Enjoy the storms today, and have a great Tuesday!

Jack Maney

KLBK 7-Day Forecast
May 10th, 2022