LUBBOCK, Texas — KLBK Meteorologist Jack Maney has your Tuesday morning weather update!
Today: Strong winds and blowing dust during the afternoon, severe storms east late. High of 88°. Winds SW 25-35 MPH
Tonight: Chilly and breezy. Low of 48°. Winds NW 10-15 MPH.
Tomorrow: Cooler and windy, but much more pleasant. High of 77°. Winds W 15-20 MPH.
Another bigtime storm system is coming to the south plains, and we are gearing up for another active weather day much like we saw on Sunday! As a powerful upper level low pressure center ejects across the southern Rockies today, it is going to induce a low at the surface over western Kansas, and this is going to cause very strong surface winds throughout the day. That surface low is drawing rich, moist air north from the Gulf of Mexico, and doing it in a hurry. The bulk of this moisture advection is occurring to our east this morning, but as we go throughout the day, we will see a sharpening dry line form over the Rolling Plains and push toward the west throughout the day. Winds west of the dry line will be very strong out of the southwest at 25 to 35 mph, with gusts over 40. This will cause some blowing dust issues during the afternoon hours today, and visibility and air quality will be affected. Highs will also be substantially warmer today owing to the strong downslope winds, and we will reach 88 degrees this afternoon.
Through the evening, the low pressure system to our north will bring in a strong cold front from the NW that will start to overtake the dry line through the evening. As it does so, this will provide strong forcing for ascent that will start to form thunderstorms along that cold front/dry line intersection, with a line of storms forming and building to the south as it races off to the east. Strong instability in the warm, moist air combined with strong wind shear from the upper level cyclone passing nearby will give a very supportive environment for strong to severe storms. The dry line will be retreating to the west throughout the day, and exactly how far west that goes before storms form will dictate whether or not Lubbock sees any rain today. Right now, I am not optimistic that it will reach our area before the storms fire off, and I am keeping our rain chances low at just 20% this evening as a result. Further east, storm chances increase significantly to 40-60% in the rolling plains. These storms will be primarily linear, so the main threat will be damaging winds of 70 to 80 mph, though some large hail and brief spin up tornadoes are definitely a possibility.
After the cold front passes our area tonight, winds should come down a bit, but still expecting a breezy and mostly clear night with a low of 48.
Tomorrow will see our weather calm down significantly. Post-frontal air is stable air, and we can expect mostly clear skies tomorrow with winds breezy out of the west at 15 to 20 mph. A high of 77 will make tomorrow quite nice! No chance of rain in our area after sunrise.
Later this week, yet another upper level low sweeps across the region to our north, and this will sweep yet another cold front into our region. This one should pass with considerably less fanfare late Thursday or early Friday, and no severe weather or rain is expected with it. What it will bring is significantly cooler weather for Friday, with a strong north wind throughout the day bringing highs in the upper 60s! The dry, cool air behind the front will hang around for several days, and this weekend is looking incredible for the outdoors. Low to mid 70s and tons of sunshine!
Have a terrific Tuesday, and stay safe this afternoon with the crazy weather coming in!