LUBBOCK, Texas — KLBK Meteorologist Jack Maney has your Tuesday morning weather update!
Today: Humid in the morning, dry line arrives early afternoon. Blowing dust possible. Severe storms east late. High of 88°. Winds SW 25-35 MPH.
Tonight: Strong cold front arrives around midnight. Low of 50°. Winds NW 20-30 MPH.
Tomorrow: Strong winds continue. Blowing dust possible. Much cooler! High of 67°. Winds NW 25-35 MPH.
A memorable day of West Texas weather is coming right up for your Tuesday! A powerful upper level storm system moving across the Lower 48 is set to give us three different flavors of weather throughout the day.
First, it will be a bit humid. Moist air has been streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico overnight, and that has increased our humidity values considerably this morning. That wills start to change by midday as the dry line surges east, arriving in Lubbock a little after lunchtime. This will bring very strong winds and much warmer and drier air into the area. Highs are expected around 88 degrees this afternoon, and Wind Advisories are already in effect in anticipation of this coming through. Winds behind the dry line will be out of the SW around 25 to 35 mph, with widespread gusts to 45 and maybe a few up to 50 mph! Blowing dust will be a concern, and travel on NW-SE oriented roads like US-84 may be hazardous for semi trucks or other tall vehicles.
Once the dry line is east of your area, storm chances effectively drop to zero for this afternoon, and I am expecting we will stay completely dry here in Lubbock today. Further east, as the dry line punches into more moist air, storm development is anticipated in areas east of the Caprock. The latest guidance is keeping this just to the east of our forecast area, but I can’t rule storms out for folks in the Rolling Plains this afternoon. Storms will quickly become severe and will pose mainly a hail and wind threat, but tornadoes can’t be ruled out this evening either. A Slight Risk (lvl 2/5) is in effect for Cottle, King, Kent, and Scurry counties this afternoon, increasing to an Enhanced Risk (lvl 3/5) further east.
Tonight, the final shift in our weather will arrive around midnight as a very strong cold front sweeps in behind the dry line. No additional storm development is expected from this as it moves through, but it will shift our winds around to the NW and bring in very dry and cool air with continued strong wind overnight and into tomorrow. Lows tonight will dip down to about 50 degrees.
Tomorrow, the cooler post-frontal airmass will continue rushing in, and winds will continue to be elevated tomorrow at 25 to 35 mph. Blowing dust will again be a concern for Wednesday, but high temperatures will be much cooler, with temperatures not expected to make it out of the upper 60s during the afternoon. Other than the dust, skies tomorrow will be nearly cloud-free.
Later this week, we will start to see things calm down a bit, with winds returning to much more normal values by Friday. Temperatures will start to rebound a bit as we head into the weekend, with highs once again in the 80s possible by Saturday. Halloween will be mild as another dry cold front is expected around that time, with highs in the 70s and mostly clear skies. Longer term forecast models are coming into alignment about a much stronger cold front of Arctic origin in about 8 days, which could bring us our first taste of winter-like temperatures by next Tuesday. We will be watching it closely, so stay tuned for updates!
Stay safe with the crazy weather coming today, and have a terrific Tuesday!