LUBBOCK, Texas — KLBK Chief Meteorologist Jacob Riley has your Wednesday evening weather update.

Tonight: Scattered storms. Locally heavy rainfall! Low of 67°. Winds ENE 10-15 MPH.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. Scattered storms. High of 82°. Winds NE→SE 12-18 MPH.

Scattered showers and storms will develop across the South Plains between 5-7 PM Wednesday evening. Before midnight, the best chance for rainfall will occur to the north of the highway 62/82 corridor. Overnight, scattered storms will increase in coverage, bringing locally heavy rainfall to most of the region. Some areas could see localized amounts over 1″! In contrast, some areas may not even see a drop tonight. Localized flooding will be possible, so remember to turn around, don’t drown! Lows will bottom out in the upper 50s to low 70s by sunrise on Thursday, with winds out of the east-northeast around 10-15 MPH. No severe weather is expected.

Thursday will feature scattered showers and storms, especially before 5 PM! Locally heavy rainfall is expected to lead to some localized areal and flash flooding. Rainfall amounts could top out close to 2″ for some, while others remain completely dry. No one area has a greater shot at seeing rainfall than others on Thursday. If you are positioned behind the cold front, which all of the South Plains will be, rain chances will remain decent. Highs will be quite a bit below average on Thursday, only peaking in the low 70s to low 80s. Areas that see the heaviest rainfall will have the coolest temperatures. Winds will shift from the northeast to the southeast throughout the day, with sustained speeds around 12-18 MPH expected.Overnight, a stray shower or storm will remain possible as lows dip into the upper 50s to upper 60s under a mostly cloudy sky.

Friday will be a little warmer and drier across the region. Other than a stray shower or storm over eastern New Mexico, most areas will remain dry throughout the day. Highs will vary from the mid 80s to low 90s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Winds will be out of the southeast around 12-18 MPH. Friday night into Saturday will remain muggy and cloudy, with a stray shower or two remaining possible. Lows cool into the low 60s to low 70s by Saturday morning.

A few showers will be around to welcome in our weekend! Highs on Saturday will top out in the mid 80s to low 90s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Later in the afternoon and evening hours, it looks like some more widespread showers and storms will begin to move into the region from the west. Locally heavy rainfall is expected, with some localized flooding likely. Please remember to turn around, don’t drown. You should NEVER drive through a flooded roadway. Winds will be out of the south throughout the day, before shifting back to the northeast as another cold front moves through overnight. Lows will cool into the low 60s to low 70s by Sunday morning, with some areas seeing upwards of an additional 1″ of rainfall.

Extended Forecast:
Models are still struggling to come to an agreement for some extreme rainfall from Saturday night into Sunday morning. The EURO is trying to bring in the moisture from the remnant tropical low that is currently in northern Mexico. Should the EURO’s forecast validate, we could be looking at some serious rainfall across the region. Totals as high as +8″ could be possible according to this solution. On the contrary, the GFS model does not show this aggressive of a solution, but still brings in 4-5″ of rainfall for some. By Tuesday and Wednesday, rain chances will begin to taper off, but temperatures will remain below their seasonal averages.

KLBK 7-Day Forecast
Valid: August 17th, 2022

Lubbock Climate Data for Wednesday, August 17th:
Sunrise: 7:11 AM CDT
Sunset: 8:31 PM CDT
Average High: 92°
Record High: 104° (2019)
Average Low: 68°
Record Low: 56° (1931)

Have a terrific Thursday, South Plains!

-Jacob

Facebook: Chief Meteorologist Jacob Riley
Twitter: @jrileywx