LUBBOCK, Texas — KLBK Chief Meteorologist Jacob Riley has your Wednesday night weather update.

UPDATED LINK: Winter Storm Update: Thursday Night, November 24th, 2022

Tonight: Cold front arrives. Mostly clear. Patchy fog south. Low of 34°. Winds SW→NE 15-20 MPH.
Thanksgiving: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow late. High of 47°. Winds N 20-25 MPH.

All eyes are currently focused on a low pressure system over Wyoming this evening. This storm system is headed for eastern New Mexico and western Texas for Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Here are the latest details.

Tonight: A strong arctic front clears the South Plains after midnight, bringing in strong northerly winds. Gusts as high as 30-40 MPH will be possible through the early morning hours, with the strongest winds over the northern South Plains. Southern areas could see some patchy fog, with a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky expected across the region. Low temperatures will range anywhere from the lower 30s to mid 40s by sunrise on our Thanksgiving Day.

Thursday: A Winter Storm Watch is set to go into effect late Thursday night into Saturday morning for a good portion of the South Plains.

Winter Storm Watch in effect for shaded counties from 12 AM Friday through 6 AM Saturday

Throughout the day on Thanksgiving, high temperatures will only rebound into the mid 30s to mid 50s, with coldest temperatures occurring over northwestern areas, and warmest temps occurring over our southeastern zones. Winds will remain breezy throughout the day, gusting upwards of 30-35 MPH. Northern areas could see gusts as high as 40-50 MPH! Our center of low pressure will settle into the region during the afternoon and evening hours. After 4-6 PM, we are expecting light rainfall to develop over the northern South Plains. This will quickly develop into a rain snow mix, before transitioning to all snow over northwestern areas. Precipitation will increase from north to south overnight. Areas west of the Interstate 27/Highway 87 corridor will likely see mainly snow with temperatures below freezing. Areas along the Interstate 27/Highway 87 corridor will likely see a mix of rain and snow, with temperatures hovering close to freezing. Areas off the Caprock will remain above freezing, seeing a cold rain.

Friday: Locally heavy snowfall is expected to continue all day long for Friday over the western South Plains. Eastern areas will likely remain in the form of a cold rain. Heavy rainfall is expected, with some areas seeing over 1″ of rainfall! Areas that see precipitation in the form of snow will see locally heavy totals close to 5-8″ throughout the day.

Highs will struggle to warm above freezing along and to the west of the Interstate 27/Highway 87 corridor. Areas to the east of the Interstate 27/Highway 87 corridor will peak in the mid 30s to low 40s. Strong northerly winds of 18-22 MPH are expected, with gusts occasionally exceeding 35 MPH. This will reduce visibility in areas seeing snow, furthering the deterioration of travel conditions around the region. Our rain/snow line will shift further east overnight as our low pressure system slowly begins to track to the northeast. This will bring snow to areas that haven’t seen much out of the system so far. Lows will bottom out in the upper 10s to lower 20s for areas with a decent snowpack, with the rest of the region cooling into the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday: By noon on Saturday, we will start to clear out as snow comes to an end. Event snowfall totals of +8″ are expected for western portions of our viewing area! This will create some slushy roadways, so be extra cautious if you have to be out driving. Hazardous travel conditions are expected throughout the day, lingering into the overnight hours. A re-freeze is expected overnight, with icy roadways expected through Sunday morning.

Snowfall expectations from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon.

Models are continuing to go back and forth on the exact track of this storm system. The slightest shift in track will make a huge difference with the forecast. A shift of a mere 20 miles could mean the difference in just a cold rain or 2-4″ of snowfall for some locations! Stay with your KLBK First Warning Weather Team for the latest information on this developing storm system. A Weather Aware day remains in effect for Thursday, November 24th, 2022 and Friday, November 25th, 2022. Be sure to follow us on FacebookTwitter, and for the latest information, and download the KLBK First Warning Weather App!

Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

-Jacob Riley.

Facebook: Chief Meteorologist Jacob Riley
Twitter: @jrileywx